For their study, researchers from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn evaluated the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), which has been tracking households over many years. They used regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 and linked these to the body measurements of individuals during childhood and later as young adults. "We see that a massive price shock not only has a short-term impact, but can also affect the long-term physical development of children," says Elza S. Elmira, the study's lead author. "The crisis-induced price rise increased chronic malnutrition and was associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. Children severely affected will not only remain shorter than their unaffected peers later in life, they will also be significantly more prone to obesity."
This correlation surprised the researchers. Elmira sees a possible explanation: "In times of crisis, families save less on calories than on more expensive, nutrient-rich foods. This results in a 'hidden deficiency' of important micronutrients, which slows down height growth without necessarily reducing body weight to the same extent." The study monitored the same children until 2014, when they were between 17 and 23 years old. For the group that was between three and five years old during the crisis, there were significant correlations with the body mass index (BMI) and the likelihood of obesity.
Protecting children in sensitive developmental stages
"Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects – growth disorders are easier to measure but are often accompanied by mental development impairments and an increased risk of obesity and chronic diseases," says Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim, co-author of the study. "In the same crisis, undernutrition and obesity can both increase. This underscores the importance of nutrition-sensitive crisis policy: it must specifically protect children in sensitive development stages. If food policy is only concerned about calories, it can miss the real problem." The agricultural economist is member of the Transdisciplinary Research Area "Sustainable Futures" at the University of Bonn and the Cluster of Excellence "PhenoRob – Robotics and Phenotyping for Sustainable Crop Production."
Stronger effect in cities and among people with lower levels of education
The effects are particularly pronounced in urban areas, where households are more dependent on purchasing food, while families in rural areas sometimes produce their own rice. Educational background also plays a role: children of mothers with low levels of education are significantly more affected than children of better-educated mothers. "The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty lines," emphasize Elmira and Qaim. "Especially in cities and in places with low knowledge about balanced diets, a price shock can worsen the quality of nutrition such that the consequences are long term and irreversible."
Why this is relevant today
The Bonn researchers point out that harvest, income, and price shocks are increasing worldwide— due to conflicts, pandemics, and extreme weather events. The analysis from Indonesia thus provides empirical evidence on how economic turmoil can translate into long-term health risks via food prices.
The results in this study are interpreted as statistical correlations; over long periods of time, not all potentially confounding influences can be ruled out with certainty.
Study: Elmira E.S., Qaim M. (2026): Macroeconomic shocks and long-term nutritional outcomes: Insights from the Asian financial crisis. Global Food Security, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100900 (open access)
Media contact:
Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim
Center for Development Research (ZEF)
University of Bonn
Tel. +49 228 731847
Email: mqaim@uni-bonn.de
